Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
