Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
